The Pharmaceutical Companies Betting on Obesity Research

In 1996, Steve Bloom, a professor in the Department of Metabolism, Digestion, and Reproduction at Imperial College London, made a discovery that most people outside the scientific community are unaware of. He discovered that the hormone GLP-1, or glucagon-like peptide-1, which is released in the stomach following a meal, influences hunger.

It was a clear and significant discovery, the kind that remains in journals for years before anyone decides what to do with it. It took Novo Nordisk almost thirty years to transform the insight into Wegovy, one of the most popular medications in pharmaceutical history. Additionally, in October of last year, Pfizer agreed to pay $4.9 billion for Metsera, a company whose lead drug candidate has direct ties to Bloom’s laboratory. If everything goes according to plan, there will be an extra $2.4 billion in milestone payments. For a discovery that began in a South Kensington academic building, that is an amazing result.

Five years ago, very few people could have accurately predicted the current phase of the obesity drug market. The market for incretins, which includes GLP-1 medications, is expected to grow to $200 billion by 2030, according to J.P. Morgan’s global research division. The market for obesity medications is expected to reach $150 billion by 2035, according to Morgan Stanley.

This estimate has already been raised from previous estimates due to the fact that demand has continuously exceeded even optimistic models. Wegovy from Novo Nordisk generated $1.95 billion in revenue last year. Approved in 2023, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound brought in $3.23 billion in 2025 alone. These are numbers that draw capital in the same way that specific scents draw attention in a kitchen; everyone is drawn to them and you can’t ignore them.

For this reason, there are now far more Danish and American companies involved in the race. Pharmaceutical companies that are investing in obesity research include well-funded California biotechs, startups in Shanghai, and a recently established London company that was named one of the year’s most promising biotechs after launching with $410 million in 2025. Instead of settling on a single winning strategy, the strategies they are pursuing are remarkably diverse, indicating that the field is still genuinely open.

Because injectable medications, despite their effectiveness, have significant adoption barriers, some are creating oral pills. In an attempt to replicate the dual mechanism that made Zepbound so successful, some are targeting GIP receptors in addition to GLP-1. Others are investigating glucose bead formulations that function by stimulating nutrient-sensing cells in the small intestine, GIPR antagonism, cortisol modulation, or amylin analogs, which seem to provide better tolerability than GLP-1 medications alone.

Among the competitors, Viking Therapeutics, a California-based company, has one of the most interesting clinical datasets, according to many analysts. In phase 2 trials, its injectable GLP-1 and GIP dual agonist VK2735 achieved 14.7% weight loss in thirteen weeks, with 88% of patients losing at least 10% of their body weight—a standard used by the industry to gauge significant efficacy.

Enrollment for the medication was finished in November, and it is currently in phase 3. Phase 3 trials for ribupatide, which demonstrated 23.6% weight loss at eight milligrams after 36 weeks in previous studies, are being conducted by Kailera Therapeutics, a Massachusetts-based company with licensing rights from the Chinese company Hengrui Pharma. If this number holds true in the larger trial, it would directly compete with Zepbound’s best results. A total of $1 billion has been raised for Kailera. Its investors’ confidence is overt.

The oral drug competition is a distinct competition. After showing 12.4% weight loss over 72 weeks in late-stage trials, Eli Lilly’s orforglipron, a once-daily pill, is aiming for a U.S. launch as early as mid-2026, pending FDA approval. With the introduction of its own oral GLP-1 for obesity, Novo Nordisk took the lead in a market that many think may eventually reach more patients than injectables ever will.

Phase 3 trials are underway for Structure Therapeutics’ aleniglipron, which has demonstrated encouraging tolerability and a once-daily dosage profile that its manufacturers claim offers a practical benefit. Corxel and Ascletis are developing their own GLP-1 candidates through late-stage trials in Shanghai and Hangzhou, mainly focusing on Chinese patients while keeping a close eye on global markets.

The sheer number of billions entering a single disease category in a short amount of time is difficult to ignore. The obesity drug market may be drawing more investment than it can handle, according to industry experts, and some of these initiatives will fail not because the science is flawed but rather because the market positioning is unfeasible when you’re the eighth company introducing a medication that resembles Wegovy. For some of the programs, that worry is most likely legitimate.

It’s also the kind of issue that arises at every turning point in the history of pharmaceuticals, and the medications that turn out to be truly superior typically find their users. Companies that either achieve significantly higher efficacy, deliver in a more convenient form, address side effects that current medications haven’t resolved, or reach patients who can’t yet access what already exists will be the ones that survive this wave. One of the most important unanswered questions in medicine is whether this wave of investment ultimately helps patients at scale or primarily benefits early investors.