Pete Hegseth appears to have entered one of those political disputes that ultimately have the opposite effect of what its initiator intended. For the better part of six months, the Defense Secretary—who now prefers the title Secretary of War—has been attempting to trim Senator Mark Kelly’s wings. In the process, he has given the Democrat from Arizona a national platform, a compelling narrative, and the kind of opponent who improves your reputation simply by criticizing you.
Kelly was the clear winner of the first round. Judge Richard Leon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia prevented the Pentagon from lowering Kelly’s retired rank in February, and he did so in a way that was more akin to a rebuke than a decision. Bob Dylan, of all people, was cited in the opinion, which cautioned that Hegseth’s campaign against Kelly endangered the constitutional rights of millions of retired military personnel. Leon came close to writing an opinion that sounds personally offensive, which is rare for a federal judge.
The appeals process came next, and by May, a three-judge panel seemed ready to support Kelly once more. In the courts, this kind of momentum typically doesn’t reverse itself. And for that reason, he appears to be doing even better in this second round than in the first.
According to Hegseth, the initial transgression was a video that Kelly and five other veterans of the armed forces shot in Congress last fall, reminding service members of their long-standing obligation to defy unlawful orders. That’s all. The offense was that. Trump described it as seditious behavior that carries a death sentence. The decorated Navy combat veteran who flew 39 missions in Operation Desert Storm and later flew four space missions for NASA was formally demoted by Hegseth after a letter of censure and a command investigation. The administration’s attempt to indict the group completely was later rejected by a grand jury, which has a way of putting things in perspective.
It’s difficult to ignore something as you watch Kelly manage everything. He doesn’t appear to be shaken. He continued to appear on Kimmel, The Daily Show, and in lengthy, patient interviews where he recounted the same tale without displaying any overt resentment despite the death threats and increased security. According to reports, one of his acquaintances made a joke about the office sending a gift basket to the administration. The line is accurate, which makes it humorous.
Arizona’s polling data has a quiet narrative of its own. Kelly’s approval among independents increased from 43% in August to 52% in December, according to Mike Noble’s surveys. There was a slight decline in Republican support. Arizona’s decision-makers are independents, and they seem to approve of what they’re witnessing. Though no one is expressing it too loudly just yet, there is a feeling in Democratic circles that 2028 is suddenly a topic worth discussing. Earlier this year, Kelly told a content creator that it would be “irresponsible” to ignore it.
The Republican response has also seemed flimsy. Susan Collins described Hegseth’s action as concerning. Thom Tillis went so far as to call it absurd. The operation’s political instinct is malfunctioning when members of your own party use that word in public.
There is more to this second round than just the legal basis. It’s the overall texture of the story—a Navy captain who flew combat missions, sat by his wife’s hospital bed after Tucson, and is difficult to make fun of. In contrast, Hegseth continues to post on X. He recently made fun of Kelly by enclosing the word “Captain” in quote marks, which reveals how one side of the conflict is being fought.
Kelly’s attorneys have made it clear that they will continue to pursue every avenue. The senator has repeatedly and without much drama stated that he will not back down. You begin to question whether Hegseth understood what he was starting as you watch him calmly maintain that line week after week. One could argue that he still doesn’t.
