At a BRICS summit every two years, someone declares that the dollar’s days are running out. Vladimir Putin has done this on multiple occasions; in 2024, he even held up what appeared to be a prototype banknote. The headlines write themselves, the cameras flash, and then, predictably, nothing happens.
This pattern has been repeated so frequently that it has practically turned into a ritual. Lula of Brazil questioned the necessity of using the dollar for trade. Iran and Russia signed agreements to cooperate on sanctions. China pushed its yuan. Nevertheless, depending on whose statistics you believe, the dollar still accounts for between 80 and 89 percent of all currency transactions worldwide in 2026. The discrepancy between rhetoric and reality is difficult to ignore.
There is a significant structural component to the issue. A currency requires more than just ambition; it also requires stable, deep bond markets, institutions that trading partners genuinely trust in the face of chaos, and a predictable legal system. Eight decades of that trust are ingrained in the dollar. In contrast, BRICS is a collection of economies with radically disparate interests, non-tradeable currencies, and governments that don’t always get along. Two of the biggest members of the bloc, China and India, have a rivalry that goes far beyond financial cooperation and border disputes.
When Russia demanded that India pay for oil in yuan in 2023, that tension became evident. India declined. Instead of a currency under the control of its regional rival, it preferred dollars or rupees. The fantasy was probably exposed more by that one moment than by any report written by an economist.
Additionally, there is the China issue, which is rarely discussed publicly by BRICS officials. Because of its size, China’s economy would most likely control any common currency. The majority of smaller members have shown little interest in giving Beijing some degree of monetary control. Why would South Africa or Brazil tie their financial future to choices made in a nation they don’t completely trust?
The situation has only become more dire due to India’s stance. Officials in New Delhi have been direct going into its 2026 host year: there isn’t a single BRICS position on replacing the dollar, and India isn’t interested in doing so. From within the group itself, that is a startling admission.
Washington’s reaction, on the other hand, has been overt rather than covert. Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on any BRICS country that attempted to support a different currency. He also proposed an extra 10% penalty for nations that were thought to support “anti-American” BRICS policies. For the time being at least, the political cost of de-dollarization is far greater than the economic benefit, regardless of whether those threats are fully implemented.
The real situation is less dramatic and smaller than what the headlines portray. The BRICS nations are experimenting with blockchain-based payment systems, such as Project mBridge, and quietly expanding local currency trade. That is true, but creating a new reserve currency is quite different from that. It is not a dethroning, but rather a de-dollarization at the margins.
The press releases don’t seem to fully convey this to investors. Sanctions have forced some trade into other channels, and central banks have increased their purchases of gold, both of which are worth keeping an eye on. However, BRICS has never been able to create true institutional trust among its own members, which would be necessary to replace the dollar. The currency remains a topic of discussion rather than a strategy until that changes.
